"Growing concerns" that Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands, according to Morgan Stanley

Are GLP-1 drugs the first real threat to the hyper-processed food and alcohol industries?

Until recently, the dominance of ultra-processed food and alcohol companies has seemed unassailable. With corporate food engineers cranking out more and more hyper-palatable products, the negative health impacts seemed to only be moving in one direction.  The tide might be about to turn.

Morgan Stanley recently did a survey of people taking GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic or Mounjaro.  CNBC and Quartz got private looks at the survey results.  Quartz wrote:

The investment bank also surveyed about 300 GLP-1 users about their consumption habits while taking the medication. Analysts at the bank have previously cautioned that the growing use of GLP-1s will put some longterm pressure on fast food sales, as users have reported spending less money at restaurants…

While 40% of survey respondents said they smoked cigarettes at least weekly before starting a GLP-1 treatment, that number fell to 24% after they started the treatment. Meanwhile, weekly e-cigarette usage dropped from 30% of respondents to 16% after they started taking a GLP-1.

Morgan Stanley found similar results when it asked respondents about their use of alcohol. About 56-62% of alcohol consumers on GLP-1s reported drinking less alcohol since starting the medications, with about 14-18% cutting their alcohol consumption entirely.

And here’s how CNBC reported it:

The findings add to the mounting concerns that soaring demand for GLP-1s could take a bite out of the bottom lines of some of the biggest restaurant companies and makers of packaged snacks like Doritos, Oreos and Hershey’s Kisses. GLP-1s include Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster weight loss injection Wegovy and diabetes counterpart Ozempic, along with Eli Lilly’s popular weight loss treatment Zepbound and diabetes injection Mounjaro. 

The rising demand for these four drugs isn’t expected to ease anytime soon. In the new survey, Morgan Stanley analysts said they expect the market for GLP-1s to be worth $105 billion by 2030. They also estimate that 31.5 million people, or around 9% of the U.S. population, will take GLP-1s by 2035. 

“There is growing evidence that the drugs have a meaningful impact on consumer behavior and spending on groceries and restaurants,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in the survey. “All of these dynamics suggest GLP-1 drugs’ impact across consumer sectors is set to increase as drug uptake grows and the drugs reshape behavior among a demographic group that represents a disproportionate share of calorie consumption.”

It’s pretty amazing that a reporter can write with a straight face that people eating less Doritos and Oreos is a ‘mounting concern’!  Will CNBC soon report ‘mounting concerns’ that Purdue Pharma’s sales of OxyContin could decline? This survey is not exactly ‘science’ but it aligns with patient reports and recent studies showing a broad reduction in cravings for food and substances among patients taking GLP-1s.

If GLP-1s prove effective for addiction, Alzheimer’s disease, depression, and anxiety–areas being studied and showing promise– the percentage of the population taking using them could far exceed 9%.  While replacing a dependence on corporate processed food brands with a dependence on big pharma might sound like a mixed blessing, the broad health, longevity, and mortality benefits for those eligible appear to overwhelmingly justify the trade-off. As more GLP-1 competitors come to market and prices fall, the benefit to the public will easily outweigh the costs.

There are also opportunities for regulators, particularly in the US, to impose price controls on GLP-1s that ensure equitable access across class and race. States that are restricting medicaid access to GLP-1s for weight loss are exacerbating the already vast health outcome inequalities in the United States. A policy of cost-restriction and access guarantees would bring massive public health benefits.

We are doing in-depth research on GLP-1 studies of addiction and mental health and will be publishing more articles soon on the science and medical uses.  We hope you will share and subscribe (it’s free).

For more of our writing and research on GLP-1 and addiction, please subscribe (it’s free!) and see these recent articles:

• Ozempic is Showing Us That a Cure for Addiction is Possible

• News Roundup: Will GLP-1s Revolutionize Addiction Treatment?

• 27 patients describe how Ozempic and Mounjaro reduced their urge to drink alcohol

If you are interested in getting involved with our group, we are always looking for PhD, MD, and other experts in the field of addiction to join the effort. Please be in touch!